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  • Profits - Australia Way Behind

    Posted 1 year ago

    Forecast earnings for Australian companies in 2013 are well below the majority of the developed world. But it's a different story when it comes to economic data... (see below).

    Source: Morgan Stanley
  • Economics - Australia Way Ahead

    Posted 1 year ago

    Australia's economic data has surprised on the upside far ahead of most of the developed world recently. But it's a different story with corporate profits... (see above).

    Source: Morgan Stanley
  • The Real Euro Crisis - Beer Prices

    Posted 1 year ago

    The price of beer has risen sharply over the past decade in many troubled euro zone nations. On an index starting at 100 in 1996, the average price of beer for consumers has rocketed in Spain, Italy and Greece - above 130, 140 and 170 on that index respectively. In Ireland, home of Guinness, however, prices have moderated somewhat since the early 2000s.

    Source: FRED
  • The Household Credit Non-Recovery

    Posted 1 year ago

    Looking at household credit around the time of the first rate cut in an easing cycle, household credit is not responding as positively as the average previous cycles in 2001, 1996 and 1992.

    Source: JP Morgan, Bloomberg
  • Import Volumes to GDP

    Posted 1 year ago

    The volume of Australian imports as a percentage of GDP is rising sharply. In the past 50 years the volume has risen from just over 5%, to around 10% in the mid-1990s, to almost 25% today.

    Source: JP Morgan, Bloomberg
  • The Housing Cycle Has Turned

    Posted 1 year ago

    As housing starts drop to roughly the level where they have bottomed in previous recent cycles, approvals have ticked up suggesting a turn in housing and a promising medium-term future.

    Source: ABS, Citi Research
  • Building Prices and Costs

    Posted 1 year ago

    The relationship between what builders pay for materials and what they charge is reasonably close. As the cost of materials has been trimmed to almost zero growth, so have the prices of building housing.

    Source: ABS, Citi Research
  • Commodities - The Long View

    Posted 1 year ago

    Despite fears of a global commodities slowdown and an end to the bullish super-cycle, a view of commodities on an index of the past 150 years in real terms shows they are still cheaper than most times prior to 1980.

    Source: HSBC
  • Mortages Are Profitable Again For The Banks

    Posted 1 year ago

    After sinking in the early 1990s, and stabilising at under 150 basis points, the spread, or difference, between the standard variable mortgage rate banks charge and the RBA cash rate banks pay has risen sharply since the global financial crisis.

    Source: TD Securities
  • What The Market Expects

    Posted 1 year ago

    Forecasts for the cash rate on a curve for the year ahead have dropped by roughly 25 basis points since May, but are much improved on the pessimistic outlook in June and July. The market now broadly expects the rate to fall to about 3% this year and stay there through 2013.

    Source: Bloomberg, RBA, ANZ