• RBA Not Chasing House Prices This Time

    Posted 1 year ago

    House prices have soared well past three-year bond yields amid record low mortgage rates.

    Source: RBA and RP-Rismark; TD Securities
  • No Risk

    Posted 1 year ago

    The difference between the interest rates on interbank loans and on short-term US government debt, known as the TED spread, is at historically low levels. This implies less perceived credit risk.

    Source: Gavekal Data/Macrobond
  • Consumer Confidence Plunges

    Posted 1 year ago

    As soon as the Federal Budget leaks began, consumer confidence plummetted.

    Source: ANZ-Roy Morgan
  • BHP Weighed Down By Iron

    Posted 1 year ago

    Iron ore's slide towards two-year lows has dragged BHP's share price down with it over the past two months.

    Source: Iress
  • Above "Normal" Building

    Posted 1 year ago

    Dwelling approvals, number, seasonally adjusted.

    Source: ABS, CommSec
  • Payments And Receipts Projected to 2023-24

    Posted 1 year ago

    Here’s a graph of the Government’s payments and receipts for the next 10 years taken from the most recent budget document from Treasury – last December’s MYEFO.

    Source: Treasury
  • Receipts And Payments

    Posted 1 year ago

    And here’s the same thing from the Commission of Audit report released today. Notice something? The Commission of Audit’s receipts line goes flat after 2020. Instead of getting closer together over time, the two lines get further apart. The difference is bracket creep, which is where the normal process of wage increases to keep up with inflation put us into higher marginal tax brackets. According to today’s report, the average wage earner goes from paying a top rate 32.5 per cent to 37 per cent in ten years, and the minimum wage earner from 19 to 32.5 per cent. Nobody will wear that, it says, so it’s assuming tax receipts stay flat at 24 per cent of GDP. Therefore to meet its allotted task of a surplus of 1 per cent of GDP in ten years, the payments line has to come down below the receipts line, like this:

    Source: Treasury
  • Receipts And Payments

    Posted 1 year ago

    Those two graphs basically sum up today’s report. $70 billion a year has to come off spending. There aren’t enough public servants to sack to save that much money so spending on the big items has to be cut – pensions and healthcare.

    Source: Treasury
  • Sydney's Housing Boom

    Posted 1 year ago

    Sydney dwelling prices, annual % change.

    Source: RP Data-Rismark, CommSec
  • China's Debt Problem

    Posted 1 year ago

    China's ratio of private sector debt to GDP has soared above its 25-year trend.

    Source: Trilogy Global Advisers